Fair Isle Prediction Competition 2015

'What will this year bring?' a common refrain when discussing birding on Fair Isle. So why not have a go at guessing what could turn up on the UK's most exciting birding destination?
2014 saw the addition of the highly-fancied Glossy Ibis and the totally unpredicted Bridled Tern and Moltoni's Warbler (although the latter wasn't predictable anyway as it was just a subspecies at the start of the season). Will 2015 bring any more additions to the island list (recent years have seen: Swinhoe's Petrel, Red-eyed Vireo (both 2013), Magnolia Warbler (2012), Lesser Scaup (2011) and in fact it is 2005 since there was a blank year for additions to the Fair Isle list) and what will they be?
The 2015 Prediction Competition follows exactly the same rules as previous years and is very easy, simply pick:  three firsts for the UK, five firsts for Fair Isle, 15 spring (1st April - 15th July) rarities and 15 autumn (16th July - 15th November) rarities (note: spring and autumn lists should not contain any of the same birds).
The points awarded are: 12 points for a UK first, 8 points for a Fair Isle first, 3 points for a spring or autumn migrant predicted in the correct season, 1 point for a spring or autumn migrant predicted in the wrong season (so four points would be awarded if a Pallas's Sandgrouse turned up in May and another in October for example).
Predictable spring and autumn migrants are: species which have been recorded less than 50 times on Fair Isle or which haven't occured on the island in the last three years. Species definitions follow the BOU British List and only full species (i.e. no subspecies) can be predicted. The Warden's decision is final as to what points are awarded for birds seen/claimed! The competition refers only to birds seen in the period 1st April to 15th November (i.e. no points awarded if Eastern Subalpine Warbler or Eastern Yellow Wagtail are split and Fair Isle claims another UK first). There are very few changes to which species can be predicted from 2013, with no species coming off the list and Curlew Sandpiper being added (having not been seen on the island since 2011), along with Canada Goose and Bean Goose (which have fewer than 50 records, although more than 50 individuals have been recorded, but to be consistent they've been added to the list this year).
If a predictable species occurs before the start of the competition season and that individual bird remains beyond 1st April, you can only gain points for it if your list was submitted before that bird arrived. You could still win points for that species if a new individual turns up during the season however.
To help with your selection, the Fair Isle checklist has been copied in below and shows which species are predictable, so please check your predictions against this list before sending it in (I'll try to check everyone's entry, but I can't guarantee I'll spot any errors and no corrections will be allowed after the deadline).
Send an email with your predictions to fibo@btconnect.com. The competition is free to enter and open to everyone (although FIBO staff can't win the prizes, just the glory!). First prize is two nights free accommodation at FIBO, or four nights free accommodation if the winner is a Friend of Fair Isle (provided the subscription started on or before 31st March 2015). To qualify for the prizes, entries must be received by first light on 1st April.
Once all the entries are in, I'll email round a spreadsheet, so people can keep track of their own score and compare it with everyone else if they want.
Winners will be announced as soon as possible after 15th November. Go on, give it a go - and good luck!

This list shows:
Species, number of records (where relevant), year last recorded, is it predictable (y/n)

Mute Swan 9 2010 y
Bewick’s Swan 6 2011 y
Whooper Swan 2014 n
Bean Goose c42 (208 individuals) 2014 y
Pink-footed Goose 2014 n
White-fronted Goose 2014 n
Greylag Goose 2014 n
Canada Goose c29 (76 individuals) 2014 y
Barnacle Goose 2014 n
Brent Goose 2010 y
Shelduck 2014 n
Mandarin Duck 2 2014 y
Wigeon 2014 n
American Wigeon 1 1986 y
Gadwall 43 (65 individuals) 2014 y
Teal 2014 n
Green-winged Teal 3 2014 y
Mallard 2014 n
Black Duck 1 2006 y
Pintail 2014 n
Garganey 13 (21 individuals) 2014 y
Shoveler 2014n
Pochard 59 (75 individuals) 2015 n
Ring-necked Duck 1 1978 y
Tufted Duck 2014 n
Scaup 2014 n
Lesser Scaup 1 2011 y
Eider 2014 n
King Eider c17 (13 individuals) 2010 y
Steller's Eider 1 1971 y
Harlequin Duck 2 (3 ind) 1999 y
Long-tailed Duck 2014 n
Common Scoter 2014 n
Surf Scoter 2 2008 y
Velvet Scoter 2014 n
Goldeneye 2014 n
Smew 7 (9 ind) 1985 y
Red-breasted Merganser 2014 n
Goosander 2014 n
Quail 2014 n
Red-throated Diver 2014 n
Black-throated Diver 7 2006 y
Great Northern Diver 2014 n
White-billed Diver 4 1979 y
Fulmar 2014 n
Cory's Shearwater 3 (90 individuals) 2005 y
Great Shearwater c16 (c209 ind) 2007 y
Sooty Shearwater 2014 n
Manx Shearwater 2014 n
Storm Petrel 2014 n
Swinhoe's Petrel 3 (2 individuals) 2014 y
Leach's Petrel 2014 n
Gannet 2014 n
Cormorant 2014 n
Shag 2014 n
Little Bittern 1 1940 y
Night Heron 2 2008 y
Grey Heron 2014 n
Purple Heron 3 1970 y
White Stork 4 2002 y
Little Grebe c40 2008 y
Great Crested Grebe 14 2011 y
Red-necked Grebe 22 (24 individuals) 2011 y
Slavonian Grebe 2014 n
Honey-buzzard 55 (57 individuals) 2014 n
Black Kite 1 2008 y
Red Kite 8 2010 y
White-tailed Eagle 15 2012 y
Marsh Harrier 43 2013 y
Hen Harrier 2014 n
Pallid Harrier 4 2014 y
Montagu's Harrier 3 2013 y
Goshawk 5 1996 y
Sparrowhawk 2014 n
Buzzard 2014 n
Rough-legged Buzzard 42 (43-44 individuals) 2014 y
Golden Eagle 1 1961 y
Osprey 124 individuals 2014 n
Lesser Kestrel 1 1987 y
Kestrel 2014 n
American Kestrel 1 1976 y
Red-footed Falcon 5 1992 y
Merlin 2014 n
Hobby 57 2014 n
Gyr Falcon 13 (14 ind) 2005 y
Peregrine 2014 n
Water Rail 2014 n
Spotted Crake 48 2012 y
Little Crake 1 1970 y
Baillon's Crake 2 1991 y
Corncrake 2014 n
Moorhen 2014 n
Coot 91 2014 n
Crane 24 (32 individuals) 2014 y
Sandhill Crane 1 1981 y
Little Bustard 1 1994 y
Great Bustard 1 1970 y
Oystercatcher 2014 n
Avocet 1 1947 y
Stone-curlew 8 2009 y
Collared Pratincole 1 1971 y
Black-winged Pratincole 1 1927 y
Little Ringed Plover 3 1979 y
Ringed Plover 2014 n
Kentish Plover 1 1949 y
Caspian Plover 1 2008 y
Dotterel 2014 n
American Golden Plover 11 2013 y
Pacific Golden Plover 2 2000 y
Golden Plover 2014 n
Grey Plover 2014 n
Lapwing 2014 n
Knot 2014 n
Sanderling 2014 n
Semi-palmated Sandpiper 3 2003 y
Red-necked Stint 1 1994 y
Little Stint 2014 n
Temminck's Stint 19 2014 y
White-rumped Sandpiper 5 2006 y
Baird's Sandpiper 4 2011 y
Pectoral Sandpiper 33 2014 y
Curlew Sandpiper 2011 y
Purple Sandpiper 2014 n
Dunlin 2014 n
Buff-breasted Sandpiper 15 (16 individuals) 2014 y
Ruff 2014 n
Jack Snipe 2014 n
Snipe 2014 n
Great Snipe c45 2011 y
Long-billed Dowitcher 2 1990 y
Woodcock 2014 n
Black-tailed Godwit 2014 n
Bar-tailed Godwit 2014 n
Hudsonian Whimbrel 2 2007 y
Whimbrel 2014 n
Curlew 2014 n
Terek Sandpiper 1 2007 y
Upland Sandpiper 2 1975 y
Common Sandpiper 2014 n
Spotted Sandpiper 1 1986 y
Green Sandpiper 2014 n
Solitary Sandpiper 1 1992 y
Spotted Redshank 2013 n
Greenshank 2014 n
Lesser Yellowlegs 3 1999 y
Wood Sandpiper 2014 n
Redshank 2014 n
Turnstone 2014 n
Red-necked Phalarope 23 (25 individuals) 2014 y
Grey Phalarope 48 individuals 2014 y
Pomarine Skua 2014 n
Arctic Skua 2014 n
Long-tailed Skua 2009 y
Great Skua 2014 n
Ivory Gull 2 1952 y
Sabine's Gull 6 2011 y
Kittiwake 2014 n
Black-headed Gull 2014 n
Little Gull 32 2014 y
Laughing Gull 2 2014 y
Mediterranean Gull 1 1996 y
Common Gull 2014 n
Ring-billed Gull 4 2013 y
Lesser Black-backed Gull 2014 n
Herring Gull 2014 n
Iceland Gull 2014 n
Glaucous Gull 2014 n
Great Black-backed Gull 2014 n
Gull-billed Tern 1 1971 y
Caspian Tern 2 1987 y
Black Tern 2 2001 y
White-winged Tern 3 2011 y
Sandwich Tern 2014 n
Common Tern 2014 n
Roseate Tern 4 (5 individuals) 2014 y
Arctic Tern 2014 n
Guillemot 2014 n
BrĂ¼nnich's Guillemot 1 1980 y
Razorbill 2014 n
Black Guillemot 2014 n
Little Auk 2014 n
Puffin 2014 n
Pallas's Sandgrouse 1 (40 individuals) 1888 y
Rock Dove 2014 n
Stock Dove 2014 n
Woodpigeon 2014 n
Collared Dove 2014 n
Turtle Dove 2013 n
Rufous Turtle Dove 1 1974 y
Cuckoo 2014 n
Barn Owl 6 2014 y
Scops Owl 2 2006 y
Snowy Owl 24 2005 y
Long-eared Owl 2014 n
Short-eared Owl 2014 n
Nightjar 29 2014 y
Swift 2014 n
Pallid Swift 1 2001 y
Alpine Swift 7 2002 y
Little Swift 1 1991 y
Kingfisher 1 1999 y
Bee-eater 8 2009 y
Roller 1 1981 y
Hoopoe c40 2012 y
Wryneck 2014 n
Great Spotted Woodpecker 2014 n
Golden Oriole 45 2012 y
Brown Shrike 1 2000 y
Isabelline Shrike 4 1994 y
Red-eyed Vireo 1 2013 y
Red-backed Shrike 2014 n
Lesser Grey Shrike 21 2007 y
Great Grey Shrike 2014 n
Southern Grey Shrike 2 1964 y
Woodchat Shrike 29 2011 y
Magpie 1 1987 y
Jackdaw 2014 n
Rook 2014 n
Carrion Crow 2014 n
Hooded Crow 2014 n
Raven 2014 n
Goldcrest 2014 n
Firecrest 7 2014 y
Blue Tit 10 (13 individuals) 2014 y
Great Tit 55 individuals 2013 n
Coal Tit 7 1997 y
Calandra Lark 5 2014 y
Bimaculated Lark 1 1976 y
Short-toed Lark 2014 n
Crested Lark 1 1952 y
Woodlark 54 (56 ind) since 1948 2012 n
Skylark 2014 n
Shore Lark 2014 n
Sand Martin 2014 n
Swallow 2014 n
House Martin 2014 n
Red-rumped Swallow 9 2012 y
Greenish Warbler 46 2014 y
Arctic Warbler 90 2014 n
Pallas's Warbler 40 2005 y
Yellow-browed Warbler 2014 n
Hume's Warbler 3 2012 y
Radde's Warbler 6 2010 y
Dusky Warbler 15 2013 y
Western Bonelli's Warbler 3 2008 y
Wood Warbler 2014 n
Chiffchaff 2014 n
Willow Warbler 2014 n
Blackcap 2014 n
Garden Warbler 2014 n
Barred Warbler 2014 n
Lesser Whitethroat 2014 n
Whitethroat 2014 n
Dartford Warbler 1 2000 y
Subalpine Warbler 89 2014 n
Moltoni's Warbler 1 2014 y
Sardinian Warbler 2 1994 y
Pallas's Grasshopper Warbler 23 2012 y
Lanceolated Warbler 89 2014 n
Grasshopper Warbler 2014 n
River Warbler 17 2013 y
Savi's Warbler 7 2008 y
Eastern Olivaceous Warbler 3 2011 y
Booted Warbler 13 2014 y
Sykes's Warbler 3 2014 y
Icterine Warbler 2014 n
Melodious Warbler 18 2013 y
Aquatic Warbler 37 2006 y
Sedge Warbler 2014 n
Paddyfield Warbler 23 2014 y
Blyth's Reed Warbler 40 2014 y
Marsh Warbler 2014 n
Reed Warbler 2014 n
Great Reed Warbler 14 2009 y
Thick-billed Warbler 2 2003 y
Waxwing 2014 n
Treecreeper 9 2014 y
Wren 2014 n
Starling 2014 n
Rose-coloured Starling 41 (42 individuals) 2014 y
Dipper 37 2011 y
White's Thrush 14 2014 y
Siberian Thrush 1 2008 y
Hermit Thrush 2 1995 y
Swainson's Thrush 2 2010 y
Grey-cheeked Thrush 5 2014 y
Ring Ouzel 2014 n
Blackbird 2014 n
Eyebrowed Thrush 2 1992 y
Dusky Thrush 1 1961 y
Black-throated Thrush 13 2012 y
Fieldfare 2014 n
Song Thrush 2014 n
Redwing 2014 n
Mistle Thrush 2014 n
Brown Flycatcher 2 2008 y
Spotted Flycatcher 2014 n
Robin 2014 n
Rufous-tailed Robin 1 2004 y
Thrush Nightingale 60 2013 n
Nightingale c53 2012 n
Siberian Rubythroat 5 2013 y
Bluethroat 2014 n
Red-flanked Bluetail 11 2014 y
Black Redstart 2014 n
Redstart 2014 n
Whinchat 2014 n
Siberian Stonechat 42 2014 y
European Stonechat 2014 n
Isabelline Wheatear 1 1998 y
Wheatear 2014 n
Pied Wheatear 1 1989 y
Black-eared Wheatear 5 1997 y
Desert Wheatear 5 1991 y
Rock Thrush 1 1970 y
Red-breasted Flycatcher 2014 n
Collared Flycatcher 6 2014 y
Pied Flycatcher 2014 n
Dunnock 2014 n
Alpine Accentor 2 1959 y
House Sparrow 2014 n
Tree Sparrow 2014 n
Yellow Wagtail 2014 n
Citrine Wagtail 74 2013 n
Grey Wagtail 2014 n
Pied Wagtail 2014 n
Richard's Pipit 2014 n
Blyth's Pipit 4 2007 y
Tawny Pipit 17 2005 y
Olive-backed Pipit 98 2014 n
Tree Pipit 2014 n
Pechora Pipit 43 2012 y
Meadow Pipit 2014 n
Red-throated Pipit 81 2014 n
Rock Pipit 2014 n
Buff-bellied Pipit 4 2012 y
Chaffinch 2014 n
Brambling 2014 n
Serin 3 1964 y
Greenfinch 2014 n
Citril Finch 1 2008 y
Goldfinch 2014 n
Siskin 2014 n
Linnet 2014 n
Twite 2014 n
Lesser Redpoll 2014 n
Mealy Redpoll 2014 n
Arctic Redpoll 90 2013 n
Two-barred Crossbill 27 (58 ind) 2013 y
Common Crossbill 2014 n
Parrot Crossbill 68 1990 y
Common Rosefinch 2014 n
Bullfinch 2014 n
Hawfinch 2014 n
Snow Bunting 2014 n
Lapland Bunting 2014 n
Savannah Sparrow 2 2003 y
Song Sparrow 3 1989 y
White-crowned Sparrow 1 1977 y
White-throated Sparrow 5 2010 y
Black-faced Bunting 1 2001 y
Pine Bunting 9 2007 y
Yellowhammer 2014 n
Ortolan Bunting 2013 n
Cretzschmar's Bunting 3 2014 y
Yellow-browed Bunting 1 1980 y
Rustic Bunting 130 2013 n
Chestnut-eared Bunting 1 2004 y
Little Bunting 2014 n
Yellow-breasted Bunting 103 2006 y
Reed Bunting 2014 n
Pallas's Reed Bunting 2 1981 y
Black-headed Bunting 25 2011 y
Corn Bunting 2012 n
Bobolink 1 1986 y
Brown-headed Cowbird 1 2009 y
Baltimore Oriole 1 1974 y
Tennessee Warbler 2 1975 y
Blackburnian Warbler 1 1988 y
Yellow-rumped Warbler 2 1999 y
Magnolia Warbler 1 2012 y
Blackpoll Warbler 2 2009 y

Category D:
Daurian Starling
Red-headed Bunting

Category E:
Black Swan
Bar-headed Goose
Red-breasted Goose
Wood Duck
Lanner Falcon
Saker Falcon
Daurian Starling
White-shouldered Starling
Yellow-headed Blackbird
Lazuli Bunting
Indigo Bunting
Painted Bunting
Varied Bunting
House Finch
Pallas’ Rosefinch
Long-tailed Rosefinch
Chestnut Bunting
Red-headed Bunting
Yellow-billed Grosbeak
Black-headed Grosbeak

Extinct:
Great Auk

Unidentified to species:
Albatross sp.

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